Surprise Package runs at Galway tomorrow. There, that’s all there is to say really. An easy decision and one that it took Peter and I less than 30 seconds to make. I know it was 30 seconds because at 9.59am yesterday, with declarations closing at 10am, we were still Whatsapping about if we should declare him for Wednesday’s 2 mile Listed race or wait for Thursday. You may ask why it was so late and why we were What’stApping when 1) it’s still technically possible to actually phone someone and 2) we’ve had three months to actually figure all of this out.
Well, let me provide some context:
Kim and I decided to take the plunge, assume our vaccination cards would allow us into Ireland, hoped they would, by the time we arrived, allow us to eat inside and trusted that we would get a negative PCR test this Friday so that we would be allowed to return to the States. (Quick aside: Kim is actually hoping for her negative test and secretly hoping that mine is positive so she can have a few quiet days at home on her own. And that was before we started our first overseas trip since 2019!)
Our flight was due to get in at 5am so I booked a hotel to allow us to get our heads down for a few hours being going across to the yard and seeing Surprise Package for the first time. That is a bit of background to our (mine and Peters) conversations in recent days:
Friday
Me: A lot of horses entered in both races; what are you thinking?
Peter: I tell you, he’s showing enough speed for 2 miles but it’s up to you (this theme will recur)
Me : All sorted then!
Peter: I’ll take a closer look later. Let’s chat tomorrow
Me: I’ve set up a spreadsheet showing all the races the entries are in through next Thursday. I’ll send it over
Peter: Champion
Saturday
Me: What are you thinking?
Peter: I don’t know – I could go either way.
Me: Well, we’re flying tomorrow so let’s talk then and get it sorted
Peter: 100 per cent
Sunday
Me: What are you thinking?
Peter: What time do you land tomorrow?
Me: (seeing where this is going) 5am, we’ll be in the hotel by 6am. Do you want to see what the declarations are like?
Peter: Yes – give me a call around 9.45am and I should know who’s running
Now, at this point, Peter (and, I guess, Ber) either did not know or had forgotten that if there was an Olympic sleeping event, Kim would be in Tokyo and not Ireland this week. The idea of me talking to anyone in our 200 sq ft bedroom was a non-starter. However, I also know that I would be secretly watching the declarations on my phone from 8am with the screen resolution turned way down, so…
Me: Let’s What’sapp
Peter: Perfect
Monday (silently over WhatsApp)
09.35 hours Peter sends a list of five horses he knows are running and then adds the Foster horse.
09.36 Me: What are you thinking? (I really must work on varying my vocabulary)
09.39 Peter: I could go either way (so must Peter). Will know about Willie’s (Mullins)soon
09.41 Me: He’s waiting to see what you do
09.45 Peter: Dark Voyager for Willie – only one. What do you think?
09.52 Me: Entirely up to you (having frantically looked up Dark Voyager’s form)
09. 54 Peter: How good is Dark Voyager? I’m easy, you call it
09.57 Me: Course form but may need it softer (a jinx comment if you like). Not too strong of a race
09.58 Peter: Happy to run (must be getting close to 10am – he never responds that quickly)
09.59 Me: If you’re happy – do it. Press the button
So, he runs tomorrow. Never in doubt!!
What sort of chance does he have? Well, Peter thinks he has come on again from Punchestown and has shown enough speed for two miles. One reason for my nervousness about this race was that I have always considered him a 2 ½ mile, good ground horse but, in fairness, he indicated at Punchestown that a drop back to 2 miles would not be a problem and, if he runs well, it certainly increases our options going forward. There are only seven runners which is another positive. Less positive is that they had a lot of rain yesterday and are forecast more overnight so we could certainly be looking at softer ground than ideal. That being said, while he may be more effective on faster ground, he has shown that he can handle soft, or even heavy, ground. Certainly, softish ground would not suit either Off Your Rocco or Annie G; the latter is a much shorter price and will struggle to lead all the way in soft ground. Peter also has a line on Annie G through Gypsy Island and we are not put off; let’s just leave it at that!
Dark Voyager has now got the ground he wanted but is a 4-year old and I remain unconvinced about how good the 4 year-old form was last season. He is a legitimate favourite and given he is Willie Mullin’s choice from multiple entries needs to be respected. Of the others, Ferdia may need a longer distance although there will be plenty of pace so that will suit – he may prefer faster ground as well. Wouldn’t you Agree was beaten comfortably by an 119 rated horse in receipt of 3 pounds last time out, and Persia was beaten by an 116 rated horse in receipt of one pound. Seeing as we are rated 126, and believed we have progressed, there’s every reason to think we can be competitive against them.
Kevin Sexton is back on and that was always the plan. Darragh O’Keeffe who replaced him at Punchestown so ably, will be on Annie G. Perhaps, some people will try to be too clever and conclude that he as jumped off mine to ride her; you know better!
Current early prices have him at around 5/1 or 11/2 – that feels about right to me (more so than the 11/1 Timeform had suggested earlier – I wish they were bookies). He should run his race, we have no excuses (well, not yet anyway) and we are looking forward to it.
Will report back on Thursday morning.