I am full of confidence. Life is a journey and needs to be enjoyed; the days before a race are the same. Enjoy these days, as when the race is run, cold, hard reality tends to bite! That has certainly been the experience for Suprise Package’s last two races as, despite our confidence, he has failed to beat a horse and left us scratching our heads. Not to worry, though, as we have come up with a barely plausible explanation that has taken root and become a compelling rationalization.
Here goes:
He doesn’t like the Flat, and he certainly doesn’t like going left-handed on the Flat. We got away with running on the Flat at Ballinrobe (last year when he finished 2nd and, of course, when he won this year), but in both years, his form left-handed was a little underwhelming. It's almost as if he’s saying to himself, “Well. I’ve done my 7-furlong gallop, so why are we still going?” Did he lose interest? It’s difficult to know, but he wouldn’t have blown a candle out afterward. That’s not him, he’s a very enthusiastic horse and love to run and race. Just look at what happened after he unseated Darragh at the start of his hurdle race at Tipperary: he galloped all 2 miles, and jumped all eight hurdles with his ears pricked; loving it!
So, we are thinking that right-handed and hurdles is the secret. Ber has been saying this for ages, and Peter and I have been, in all honesty, pretty dismissive of this contention. It pains me to have fundamentally changed my opinion, but I am now in Ber’s camp.
So Fairyhouse (right-handed) and hurdles it is! It makes looking forward to Sunday a bit of a double-edged sword: on the one hand, if he wins, Kim and I will be celebrating wildly, but, on the other,we will be with Peter and Ber, who will be full of herself!
Talking about Kim. Not only am I delighted she is going to be there to cheer him home, but it is the first time she will ever have seen him run in person. She was a lucky charm for Bay of Freedom, would have been for Freedom to Dream had it not been for Appreciate It, and is now all set for Suprise Package’s fifth (right-handed) victory.
A few weeks ago, I decided just to compare his form right-handed and left-handed; it really is pretty illuminating. He has never won left-handed and, while he has run a few decent races, his form has been below what he has shown the other way around. His 11 runs right-handed read like this:
1 Unplaced (had not recovered from an earlier sickness)
1 Pulled Up (heart arrhythmia)
1 Third
4 Seconds
4 Wins
This race has been the plan since the Summer, and those statistics can only give us confidence. In all honesty, we would have loved to have got a schooling hurdle race into him so that we could be reassured he has retained all of his enthusiasm, but it has just been too dry and the ground too firm. So, in the absence of that, let me add a few more reasons:
- He has been working exceptionally well. Take a look at this video particularly the gallop (at 0:40) when the 2nd horse is struggling to keep up and he is just lobbing along. The second is a decent horse carrying much less weight than Suprise Package.
- He has shown good form on the course
- The ground and distance are perfect for him
- He has a good racing weight and, probably the best jockey riding in Ireland at the moment: Darragh O’Keeffe
Darragh came to sit on him a couple of days ago and was very impressed by how he felt. So we now have a confident jockey, a happy horse, a hopeful trainer, an expectant owner (and wife – no,not in that way) and a potentially insufferable trainer’s wife. Which reminds me: I did mention to Ber that her convictions may be borne out, and that that may be the outcome , and she replied: “moi…insufferable????” which, let’s be honest, is the most insufferable response ever!
According to today’s Sporting Life website, his forecast starting price is 20/1 – in the hope the bookmakers concur with the SL, then you will why this blog is titled the way it is.
Ok, let’s get down to business. There are actual form lines which are very encouraging:
Volantis (11/2) – in 2023 finished 1.5 lengths in front of Cash Back receiving 12 pounds. We beat Cash Back off-level weights by four lengths. That makes us 14 pounds better than Volantis. We are giving him just one pound on Sunday! Explain that price discrepancy
Washington (8/1) – in 2022 (when he was rated 6 pounds better than now), he finished 2 lengths behind Hacker Des Places, receiving six pounds. In his previous race , Hacker Des Places had finished 10 lengths behind us, receiving two pounds. A literal interpretation made us a 20-pound better horse than Washington at that time. We now have to concede 14 pounds.
There are few other decent collateral form lines over hurdles. However, I struggle to believe that any of these horses would win an Imperial Cup off a mark similar to what they are carrying on Sunday (and do it easily as well). I guess the big question is: have we regressed over the last two years? It’s possible, but his work would suggest otherwise, and, as they say, that’s why they run the race! We will find out soon enough, but until we do, everything is wonderful and positive!