Happy Holidays to everyone! Let’s get the racing out the way first: Freedom To Dream runs in the beginners chase at Leopardstown tomorrow (28th). There are only six runners and, somewhat disrespectfully, he finds himself the outsider of six. It’s a very good race but I think he might surprise a few people. I also think some of the price differences really don’t make much sense.
Let’s start with the favourite: I am Maximus. This is a wonderful example of the Willie Mullins factor; he was transferred from Nicky Henderson at the end of last season and started odds on in his first chase and is odds on here again. Over hurdles, he was rated 134 which is actually one pound lower than Freedom to Dream was rated by the same handicapper. You would need to believe he has improved markedly for fences for him to be 4/5 and us 20/1 in the betting.
The evidence is based on his run against Minella Crooner at Fairyhouse when he really should have won. Now, Minella Crooner was a very decent novice hurdler last season but, I would contend, his two chase runs have not been particularly impressive. He failed to beat Darren’s Hope who has spent a long time proving herself to be a solid 130 rated horse in a performance that would be rated no higher than 135. It’s entirely possible he ran to a similar rating against I am Maximus which would put that horse around the 135 mark as well – not a basis to be odds on (except, of course, he is trained by Willie who has won this race for the last three years and says he has improved ‘hugely’) Largy Debut was behind them in that race and it is difficult to see him reversing the form particularly when you consider he has only gone left-handed once before (this meeting last year) and that was a disaster. Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Decimation but this will be that horses first run over fences and has a lot to prove. Decimation was actually rated five pounds above Freedom to Dream last year and they both ran in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham. Decimation fell quite early on so there is nothing conclusive to glean. Interestingly, though, he was 33/1 while we were 20/1 so that would infer that the bookmakers think we would be pretty much equal at level weights. At the very least, Decimation and Freedom to Dream should be the same price tomorrow and, arguably, we should be shorter given that we have some experience over fences; the 10/1 and 20/1 respectively do not seem right.
Grand Roi has good hurdles form but fell last time, may not want too much rain and is not certain to be suited by the 2m 5f
The other horse in the race is Gentlemansgame who has developed a habit of finding one (or two) too good for him. Despite not having run over fences, he would be my biggest fear. However, reaching deep into the Festive pillowcase of cliches “you can never be scared of one horse”
Freedom to Dream is very well. There were a couple of niggles after his Fairyhouse run but he is fine now. We knew this would be a tough race but wanted to find nicer ground and Leopardstown offered the best chance of that. There really are few opportunities for him in Beginners Chases and wherever we decided to go we were going to ‘bump into’ a few decent horses. At least, tomorrow will be a good gauge and we’ll know where are with him and be able to plan the next few months. Sam Ewing rides and he is very highly rated. He schooled Freedom to Dream last Friday and was happy with him. He does have a tendency to jump a little high, but we think a stiff track like Leopardstown will suit; certainly his two previous appearances there (second to Appreciate It in a bumper and fourth in a Grade 1) wouldn’t put you off.
We are treating Peter and Ber to a night in our Dublin hotel tomorrow which will definitely make a long, and very enjoyable, day of it. Last week I received a WhatsApp from Ber’s cousin, Joanne, who will, entirely by coincidence, be racing tomorrow and staying at the same hotel with Brian, her husband. Their anniversary is the following day so they will be after celebrating and I suspect the 24 hour Residents bar may get a full work out before breakfast on Thursday. They have a share in Insane Bolt who is in the second race tomorrow and, while they don’t need any further excuse to celebrate, if he were to win, they would find a way, trust me!
So, the question you, no doubt, are asking is: “how are you and Kim preparing for the marathon Wednesday?”. Well..we are going to see a pantomime: The Jungle Book at the Gaiety theatre. This news will no doubt provoke mixed reactions: from American readers “what’s a pantomime?” and from everyone else “Jungle Book’s not a pantomime”
People can’t believe that Kim loves pantomimes but when I tell them that her favourite UK TV show is Gogglebox (we have watched it every night) then things make more sense. I love pantos as well and while going tonight does nothing for building my alcoholic tolerance, it does allow me an early opportunity to practice what I hope to be saying to Freedom to Dream at 3pm tomorrow: “They’re behind you!”
Wish us luck, a safe return for Freedom to Dream and a day of recovery on Thursday.
Racing update: Just watched The Big Dog run a great race to finish 3rd of top weight in the Welsh Grand National. Really tough conditions and a great performance. Peter said he felt his horses were in good form – looks like they might be!