Freedom to Dream, in a potentially inspired move, runs in tomorrow’s Pertemps qualifier at Punchestown. Of course, not everyone might agree it’s an inspired move and if you were to conclude based on the betting forecast, you would have to say it is a move borne more out of desperation.
If you take his best form, he has every chance of winning; if you take his last four runs, he will be lucky to finish last. Fundamentally, should a horse who finished fourth in the Martin Pipe off a rating of 135 have regressed so much that, 20 months later, he is quoted at 40/1 when running off a mark of 126? (Rhetorical)
I doubt you will find 40/1 available when you read this as that was Bet365’S early price and they are now back to 25/1; in line with the other bookies. I guess their odds compiler just looked at the letters and numbers from his last four runs and decided he had no chance; I can understand their logic. People solved the Enigma Code quicker than have worked out how his last four runs have garnered form figures of P07P. To save you from scratching your head, the answers from the horse’s mouth are:
P – Banged my nose on landing; fair brought tears to my eyes, it did.
0 – Started too far back and felt slight ulcer pain.
7 – Was enjoying myself until the ulcers kicked in – literally bleeding, they were.
P – My knees were killing me, and I just couldn’t jump.
Over the last few months, the ulcers have effectively gone away. Of course, there’s always a concern they could come back but so far so good. We have treated his knee issues (once we figured out it was his knees causing the issues – if only they could talk, eh?) and he seems to be going as well as ever at home. In theory, he should, at eight-years-old, be at his peak so we won’t be giving up on him any time soon. If you had said to me immediately after Cheltenham in 2022 that he would be running, 20 months later, in a handicap off 126 and be 25/1, I would have thought you were crazy. Yet, here we are, and you’re probably not crazy which means that I must be!
I won’t be there tomorrow. It was Thanksgiving on Thursday and a big (US) family occasion so no opportunity to travel. It’s just as well as a heavy cold has meant I have spent most of the holiday in bed feeling sorry for myself. It also means that this is a very short blog with very little humor (American or English).
I will end with a quick Suprise Package update: he continues to hit every milestone on his was to, hopefully, a full recovery. Peter says he has never known a horse to retain both muscle and condition – remarkable. We still have a way to go, but we are getting there.
Let’s hope Freedom to Dream shows some spark tomorrow, enjoys himself, and comes back safe and sound.