This is probably the most excited I’ve been for a racing weekend ever; two horses running at the Dublin Racing Festival. It doesn’t get any better than that!
What did you say? “JP’s got 20 runners”. Well, yes but JP has his own scale when it comes to runners; a bit like Arkle required a separate rating system.
“Well Gigginstown have 9, Robcour 5, Bective Stud 5 so what so you say to that?” I say quality over quantity; you know, like the Kenny Alexander model when he only has the two runners (same as me). I expect him to hit a 50% strike rate when Honeysuckle wins and I expect the Leech/Alexander team to hit an overall 25% strike rate; better than the rate any of the owners you noted will achieve, I suggest.
“Hold on a minute you are creating some non-existent Alexander/Leech team to obscure the fact that you don’t think either Freedom to Dream or Suprise package will win”
I didn’t say that I don’t think they’ll win; it’s just that I spent way too long with Peter Fahey this morning and now I am not so sure that they will win. Actually, if I’m honest, Freedom to Dream has his work cut out in a Grade 1. That being said, his price of 33/1 is no reflection of his true chance, particularly when you take into account that Eric Bloodaxe is a best priced 6/1.
That is based on the fact that the latter beat us by 7 ½ lengths at Limerick and suggests there is no reason why we could reverse that form; well, please let me offer a rebuttal:
First of all, we found out, after the race, that Freedom to Dream’s blood counts were ‘off’; we gave him some time off, applied the right medication and he has come back firing
Secondly, the ground was officially heavy or, as the locals would say: “Limerick bottomless – treacle with a splash of glue”. Now, I’m not saying it suited the winner any better than us, but small margins get magnified in such conditions.
Tomorrow’s field has already been reduced to seven as we have scared off one of the Mullins’ horses. The others all have inter-related form to some extent or another and the whole form could be enhanced tomorrow, or it could all be blown apart – we shall see.
For our part, we will be adopting slightly different tactics and hoping for the best. There’s prize money down to sixth so literally no prize for coming last – this is not high school sports!
So, while our health problems with Freedom to Dream are behind us for now, Suprise Package gave us a bit of a scare last week. Peter called me and said that he had a bit of a crusty nose and we would need to take it day by day. He had been placed on a five day medication regime which would be finished in good time to allow for the ‘withdrawal period’ – the time after the medication in which he could not race. It occurs to me that my earlier reference to them both running this weekend has taken away a mighty slice of the suspense from this particular story but there is a good reason for that, dear reader: I do not want you to have to go through my stress. It's bad enough travelling 5000 miles (we are living in Florida right now and there’s no good flight connection) without worrying if the horse you think can run well will actually turn up. Imagine, if added to that stress, you then developed a cold two days before travelling and were advised by your loving wife that a lateral flow test would be a good idea
(Note – advice , in this context, being synonymous with command)
Anyway, I duly read the instructions and took my very first Covid test. Now, I’m not saying I now know what it’s like to take a pregnancy test, and, in any case, I was in the kitchen and not the bathroom, but I would say that those 15 minutes were extremely stressful for both me and Kim. I couldn’t bear the thought of not coming this weekend and Kim could not bear the thought of being with me if I didn’t come this weekend. It is safe to say that we both wanted the same outcome. The fact that one of us misread the very clear instructions and told the other one, incorrectly, that it was positive had the combined effect of merging dark despair and absolute delight into a five second blur. That was it! No more tests for me however bad I felt; at which point I started, and have kept, feeling better.
I was reminded of this watching both horses being scoped this morning. If you haven’t seen this then just reflect that, if you have taken a Covid test, then you can probably empathize much more easily than you could two years ago. Instead of a swab, a scope with a camera in it is placed/pushed up one of the horse’s nostrils and the vet looks at the image on a screen. I could feel my eyes starting to water and a sneeze coming on, but the horses took it pretty much in their stride so to speak and the results, as well as the blood tests, came back clear. It was all systems go for Sunday.
What am I feeling about the weekend? Well, without getting too sentimental and soft, I cannot believe that I have two horses (out of two) who are both good enough and entitled to run at the Dublin Racing Festival. I was thinking last night that each of my three horses with Peter have been, or will be, rated in the 130’s; to have all three horses of that calibre is pretty amazing when you think about it.
I have already enjoyed this weekend more than I can begin to explain; and it hasn’t even started yet. Anticipation is the greatest source of enjoyment! I have two friends coming in late tonight, we may have the occasional drink over the weekend, will spend some, no doubt, with the wonderfully named Money for Jam syndicate (owners of The Mighty Doyen) as well as Peter, Ber and others. The racing is great, and I would not want to be anywhere else.
Wish us luck!
Now, time to get ready for a Podcast appearance (explanation to follow)….