It’s the Red Mills Final tomorrow and what sort of race would it be if I didn’t have a runner? We are attempting to follow up last year’s win by Suprise Package with Freedom to Dream.
Unfortunately, I will not be in attendance as I have been advised not to fly for a while due to blood clot concerns as a result of my serious Covid experience. In any event, I now have a stress fracture in my right foot and am obliged to wear a fashion-unfriendly boot for 4-6 weeks. So, it is with heavy heart, but a delighted liver, that I will not be at Punchestown or Cunninghams this week! I will leave Peter and Ber to do any and all celebrating and feel confident that they will not let me down.
Before talking about tomorrow’s race, let me bring you up to speed on Surprise Package. He was very disappointing at Aintree but he has come out of the race well. He will now go on a spring/early Summer break and we will bring him back to go chasing next season. We, obviously, have the option of staying over hurdles but with his rating of 140 there are very few opportunities, and, in any event, we always planned to go jumping with him.
Can you believe when we bought him the plan was to ‘hoover’ a few summer handicap hurdles before the handicapper finally caught up and ‘stopped’ him with a rating of 120. To say he has surpassed our expectations would be an understatement and it is remarkable to look at the Racing Post statistics on him and see that he has earned over £114000 in under 18 months; for the non-owners amongst you, that is almost enough to turn a profit!
As regards tomorrow’s race, I have to confess to feeling much more confident than I would like to. I keep looking for dangers and struggling to find any; not a situation that I am used to and it is very concerning. Of course, I respect all of the other runners, but I don’t, in all honesty, respect them enough to think they might actually beat us. I have forced myself to come up with some negatives and have found three:
1) The distance of 2 ½ miles is a short as we would like and I would prefer another two furlongs,
2) The ground, while safe, is as fast as we would like but, then again, it might suit a few others even less, and
3) Kevin has had a few falls recently so needs to put that behind him.
Regarding this last concern, we have taken proactive measures to address any issues. For the last few days, we have arranged for Tubthumping by Chumbawamba to be played surreptitiously wherever he has gone. That should address any psychological concerns and we will stop that at 9pm this evening and replace it with We Are The Champions by Queen which will literally be in his head as he sleeps tonight. By 4.15pm tomorrow he should be his normal, positive, confident self (although I do hope he doesn’t arrive at the course in a white vest and tight trousers!)
Kevin has even promised to do a flying dismount if he wins and, let’s face it, who cares if he falls at that point?
You all know what’s going to happen, don’t you? By tomorrow morning, I will have decided he can’t possibly win and/or he will run a lifeless race and we will be scratching our heads. I’ve just written that because the Law of Tempting Fate required me to, but, and keep this quiet, I don’t believe it. I guess the chief danger is Gangouly and he might even be favourite. The thing is: we can’t be having Willie Mullins winning these Auction races as well as Grade 1’s – the revolt starts tomorrow and we will be doing our best to make sure he doesn’t win. On a line through Sam’s Choice, there isn’t much between Gangouly, Sam’s Choice and Freedom to Dream. However, we have probably improved over 14 pounds since then so you would have to think that gives us a leading chance. I A Connect is not to be discounted; he is a front runner who was held up at Cheltenham so that doesn’t reflect his true form. That being said, he still finished 20 lengths behind Freedom to Dream and is three pounds worse off; that will take some turning around. Not only that, we need a front runner at this distance so more than happy for him to revert to his normal running style.
Of the others, Choice of Words (another possible front runner) would probably prefer softer ground. The one I think might outrun their odds is John Cannon who has indicated he has more ability than shown. However, he is stepping up in trip and there is no obvious reason it will suit him. Why not hope for Peter’s other horse in the race, Ambitious Fellow, to come second? He may surprise a few people.
So what happens if we win tomorrow? Well, win or lose, Freedom to Dream will be going on a long summer holiday and come back in the Autumn to start his chasing career, something we are very excited for him to do. The other thing that might happen is that Peter will make some subtle comment about going for the three-timer next year. This would obviously involve buying another horse and is something I refuse to discuss (mainly due to Kim walking into the room).
Wish us luck!