Suprise Package is raring to go in the Grade 1 Novices hurdle at Aintree on Friday; unfortunately his owner will be a non-runner. Covid struck immediately after Cheltenham and meant I had to stay in England for an extra two weeks, lost over a stone (14 pounds) and developed loads of joint issues. I finally made it back to the US last Friday but have had to admit defeat in terms of travelling across for the race on Friday.
But let’s take a step back and reflect on Cheltenham. Surprise Package ran a very nice race in the County hurdle and was travelling really well entering the straight. In the end, the Imperial Cup probably took the edge of him and he faded a little to finish 6th It was still a great run and confirmed that his new handicap mark of 145 was not too far off the mark. Freedom to Dream also ran really well in the Martin Pipe and his 4th place finish meant that not only did we enter the hallowed winner’s enclosure but were also invited to the room reserved for placed connections. I assume this varies from the winning connections room in three significant ways:
1) It is probably bigger to cover three lots of connections
2) It probably serves house champagne (to make the winners feel special), and
3) It is likely to order more champagne in order to cover the celebrations of three sets of connections per race
This last point is crucial as, on this day, Cheltenham seemed to over-estimate the celebratory nature of the placed connections in the first six races. As a result, we were welcomed by five trays each holding about 12 very full champagne flutes. To make matters worse (if that’s the word) only the connections of the 2nd horse joined us and they only stayed briefly. A few of our number (10) seemed to interpret these winking champagne flutes as a challenge and took the view of “ it would be rude not to”. As a result, we had some very drunken members of our team on the car ride home (good job we had a driver).
A few days later Peter texted and said that Freedom to Dream was in great order but that he couldn’t believe how well Suprise Package was and that he could run that weekend; he was that well! Peter won the Grade 1 Novice at Aintree with Belfast Banter last year so we had considered it as a possibility but were concerned that Suprise Package might not be up to it. The fact that he was so well, was ready to run and that there was nothing else before Easter (at best) were all factors in starting to really think about Aintree. What tipped the balance was reflecting on how he stacked up against the other top novices this season; Timeform had him listed in the top 20 novices and, as these were for all distances and ages, meant that he was in the top 10 over 2 miles. We knew it was likely that only one or two of them would line up at Aintree so took the view that we would be in the top three from a ratings point of view if we did go. As it’s turned out we are 3rd in terms of handicap marks, Racing Post Ratings and Topspeed – it’s pretty clear that we are entitled to have a crack.
There was a lot of speculation on Twitter that Jonbon would not be declared for the race; that proved nonsense and he is running and a very deserved favourite. He probably came up against a superstar in Constitution Hill at Cheltenham and finished well clear of the third. He should be good – he cost £570000 (Surprise Package was £16000 for perspective). At his best, he will take a lot of beating but he did have a hard race at Cheltenham and you never know if that could have left a mark. Also, he is a horse that isn’t used to being beaten so it remains to be seen if there is any lasting psychological impact of being beaten so decisively; to my untrained eye he looked a bit confused as to what was going on when Constitution Hill breezed by him.
They always say “you can’t be scared of one horse” and they are right so let me give you another one in the race to be scared of: El Fabiolo. You have to respect any horse that Willie Mullins talks up and enters into a Grade 1 and he could turn out to be another superstar; in which case you just have to ‘tip your cap’ and move on. However, based on his racecourse performances he will need to show a lot of improvement. He finished 3rd in a Listed hurdle in France and that sort of form line tends to get people very excited. However, that was in a race for unraced horses and the subsequent form of the other runners has been, and let me find a kind word here, abysmal!
He then joined the master, Willie Mullins, and duly won his maiden at Tramore, easily beating a stablemate who, let’s just say, was not given a particularly hard race. He could not have won more easily but the time was identical to the next race which was won by a 99 rated horse carrying 8 pounds more – Willie knows best but I also know that form is a long long way away from what will be required on Friday.
We also come up against First Street who finished in front of us in the County Hurdle and meets us on two pounds better terms. Theoretically he should beat us again, but I am not sure he will be suited by the shorter distance and the sharper track – I actually fancy us to reverse the form.
There has been support for Aucunrisque who has won his last three races and appears to be improving. However, his latest victory, on a line though the second, would leave him many lengths behind Jonbon and I think he has his work cut out.
Gordon Elliott sends a horse that some people are tipping: Vina Ardanza. For me, I think people are ‘reaching’ and trying to find something to upset Jonbon and El Fabiolo and have chosen him because he has only run three times and there could be significant improvement. The same people don’t tip Suprise Package because they think he is more exposed and that they know how good he is.
And that’s were it gets interesting; I am not sure that Peter or I know how good he is. He has not stopped surprising us and the way he is working right now is better than it has ever been. It is entirely possible that we will be put in our place on Friday but, for now, he is giving us every reason to think he will run a massive race. He travelled over on Tuesday, ate and drank of the way and ate up when he got there with, as they say, ‘not a bother on him’. He seems to like this travelling lark and is ready to go.
It's pretty unbelievable that a horse we bought to run around the likes of Kilbeggan and Ballinrobe (two of my favourite courses by the way) in the summer, is now a legitimate contender for a Grade 1. This is pretty amazing and shows just how lucky I have been with all of my horses with Peter.
Wish us luck on Friday!