I will keep this blog brief: you have all indulged too much over the Christmas period, and now is not the time to give you a mind-blowing, hilarious, and information-filled blog to gorge on!
Given the 200 races, 4000 horses* running over this Holiday period, you may not have noticed that Suprise Package is appearing at Leopardstown tomorrow. When I say appearing, that depends on no repetition of the fog that completely spoiled today’s racing. I will not be there and will be watching from the warmth of my lanai in Naples (or from my living room sofa if the temperature is a frigid 65 degrees or less)
(* Exaggeration alert)
It may surprise some observant readers of this blog that he is running tomorrow, as the last time I wrote, I spent a disproportionate amount of time explaining that he needed to go right-handed and how poorly he had run at Leopardstown the last twice. However, those runs were on the Flat, and his two runs over hurdles have been ok; 2nd in this race three years ago and 9th in the Liffey hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival when it was touch and go to run him because of a crusty nose. He was perfect three days later and proved that to be the case when he won the Imperial Cup next time out.
We had dinner after his last run at Fairyhouse, and, in terms of his next race, our only decision was “not Leopardstown”. The problem is, we are trying to map out a campaign through to the Spring, and Peter thinks he is better (and happier) if we just keep him going. That being the case, we need to be looking for a race every four weeks or so and try to include Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, or Punchestown in our thinking.
We did enter him for the Ladbroke hurdle at Ascot but were concerned that the travelling wasn’t ideal and that his weight was high enough at 11:11 and the ground could be quick. (It wasn’t in the event, but we could not have known that) We did learn that his UK handicap mark is 140, and that would get him into any handicap at Cheltenham.
We hope he will run a solid race tomorrow and have a decent each-way chance. He is second top-weight, and a few horses may be well handicapped below him. If he disappoints again, we will go back to blaming Leopardstown and go elsewhere for his next run; probably a conditions race where he doesn’t have to give lumps of weight away.
I’m delighted that we have Sam Ewing riding; Darragh O’Keeffe has become his regular rider, but he is always likely to be claimed by Henry DeBromhead, so we had earmarked Sam, who we know well and who rides out a lot at Peter’s. He actually, very kindly, gave me a lift to my hotel when I took the stable staff out back in October, so the least I can do is to give him the pleasure of riding Surprise Package. He would have won on him at Cork last year if he hadn’t gone and broken his leg three races earlier. Tomorrow, his only challenge will be focusing on our little race after riding in two Grade 1 races immediately prior. He’s a pretty cool customer, and I was delighted to almost see him win a Grade 1 today (Thursday) on Croke Park in the fog.
At the time of writing, he is a 14/1 chance. Enniskerry is half those odds, despite us being weighted to finish alongside each other, Of the horses more fancied, I would make the following unsolicited comments:
Ethical Diamond (9/2).
Has shown very little form over hurdles, but that could be because he has only run on soft ground. Based on his flat form, he should appreciate tomorrow’s better going. Just a question if he’s going to be effective over hurdles, if he is, he has a leading chance.
Lark in the Morning (13/2)
Has decent form, but all of his best performances have been on much slower ground.
Pinot Gris (7/1)
He won easily last time out, but the form has not been franked, and it is difficult to know what he has achieved.
Gaucher (15/2)
He could be the main danger. I thought he ran a much better race in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse than his finishing position would suggest. I would be scared of him.
Jacovec Cavern (8/1)
On balance, his hurdles form doesn’t amount to a great deal. His yard can always pull out a handicap ‘surprise’, but he would need to improve a lot.
Lieber Nicc (12/1)
Ran a solid race last time out, but it will be a tall order to win this
Of the ones at longer prices, I would not discount Diamond Nora, Clarens, or Wee Charlie.
Please settle back and watch (or try to if there’s more fog) the race tomorrow. Let’s just hope he enjoys himself and comes back safe and sound.
Happy New Year everyone!
Ps How did this blog get to be so long?