There was a young horse from Monasterevin
Who everyone thought was a shoo in
The ground came just right
And he galloped out of sight
And that’s how he gained his first win
Ok – that was pretty poor but after a couple of beers what do you expect? As you may have guessed, Freedom to Dream is off to Limerick to run in the bumper tomorrow. It’s a pretty weak race and any rational analysis would indicate that he should win; pity there’s no rationality to this blog!
Actually, I do think he should win but there are a few concerns. Let me give you a list:
1) He was sore after his last gallop last week. He had some physio and seems perfect now but, hey, you never know.
2) Peter hasn’t had a winner in January and the horses seem to be running a little flat.
3) The owner will be in America and unable to make the meeting.
Obviously, number 3 is the big one. Bay of Freedom ran 26 times and Freedom to Dream has run twice and, in all that time, I have only missed two races: both times when Kim and I were on vacation in far flung exotic places. I struggle to describe Boston as far flung and I certainly do not consider a Board meeting as exotic but that’s where I will be! Actually, that’s not quite true. The Board meeting starts at noon and the race starts at 11.45 (Boston time) so, as long as we don’t start early, I will have a few minutes to watch the race. That’s the idea but you know what’s going to happen: there are 18 Board members and what are the chances that a few aren’t going to come up to the guy avidly looking at his laptop and, ignoring the Racing TV International images, proceed to talk ‘shop’ . I don’t want to be ignorant but it’s fair to say that I am pretty tense when he runs so there’s no chance of me indulging in any small talk. I need to find a quiet corner or, preferably a small room.
I did toy with the idea of not knowing the result until I got home five hours later and then watching it on ‘catch up’. However, I have to be honest and say that just doesn’t work for me; if I know an event is over, I can’t pretend it isn’t so will inevitably look up the result. There is no way I could last five hours without knowing the result and there is no way that some ‘idiot’ isn’t going to email after the race and make some comment about what happened. So I will watch it and I will try to be professional when I make my two presentations at the Board.
At the time of writing (9.15pm Boston) Freedom to Dream is a pretty strong favourite across the boards with prices ranging from 10/11 to 5/4. We have Derek O’Connor riding him again (he said some nice things about him after Leopardstown) and the opposition looks relatively weak. While it’s not perfect coming back in distance to two miles, if he reproduces his Leopardstown form then he really should be winning. My biggest concern, apart from people interrupting me, is the time of the race. I am not sure what they are thinking but 4.45pm local time seems a really late start time. I have no idea how good Freedom to Dream’s night vision is but, trust me, if he loses I will find a way to blame the darkness.
Derek, along with Jamie Codd and Patrick Mullins are the pre-eminent Irish amateur jockeys and any owner would be happy to have any one of them riding their horse. Derek is the sort of jockey who will throw his whip away 200 yards out if he doesn’t need it; he did that in a 100000 pound race last Saturday and still won. I have a feeling he won’t be doing it tomorrow!
Let me leave you with some of the pre-race comments about his chances. These should be taken with a grain of salt but I do need to record them for posterity so please indulge me – he may never be favourite again:
“Peter Fahey does extremely well with his bumper horses and Freedom To Dream rates an exciting sort for the stable.
The five-year-old ran a big race in defeat when second to Cheltenham Bumper favourite Appreciate It at Leopardstown over Christmas and is likely to take another step forward in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction (Pro/Am) Flat Race (4.45).
A fine, big staying chaser for the future, Freedom To Dream should be at home at Limerick and will be hard to beat under Derek O'Connor.”
That was from Brian Sheerin in the Racing Post. Look, I know he has an interest in a horse in Peter’s yard but you can’t tell me that’s not objective journalism.
What about this:
“It is rarely wise to take Willie Mullins on in bumpers and his mare MISS PUNCH ran well enough behind a more fancied stablemate at Punchestown to get the nod here over Freedom To Dream”
That was from the Sporting Life and somebody who doesn’t like to think too hard.
But this was more typical:
“This looks a good opening for FREEDOM TO DREAM to get off the mark at the third attempt if able to replicate his fine Leopardstown second”
Logic says he will win; I wish I could find that logic tonight. Let’s all just hope.